LAGUNA NIGUEL – After going with 16 teams in its Open Division brackets for the first four seasons of the division (2014-17), the CIF Southern Section administration cut it to an eight-team bracket in 2018 and into eight-team “pool play” competition three years ago.
And that’s where it stands now, when play begins on Friday night with Corona Centennial and Sierra Canyon sitting atop Pools A and B, respectively.
So, how would things look on Friday night if the run for the Open Division championship was still in the 16-team bracket mode?
If I was making the call (caveat: I’ve been a member of the Open Division’s selection committee since Day 1), this is how, with the “additions” underlined:
Upper Bracket
No. 1 Corona Centennial vs. No. 16 West Ranch
No. 8 Sherman Oaks Notre Dame vs. No. 9 Bishop Montgomery
No. 5 Crean Lutheran vs. No. 12 Colony
No. 4 Damien vs. No. 13 St. John Bosco
Lower Bracket
No. 3 Harvard-Westlake vs. No. 14 St. Bernard
No. 6 Mater Dei vs. No. 11 Rolling Hills Prep
No. 7 Riverside Poly vs. No. 10 Etiwanda
No. 2 Sierra Canyon vs. No. 15 Heritage Christian
In this alignment, teams from the same leagues – Baseline (Damien and Etiwanda), Del Rey (Bishop Montgomery and St. Bernard), Mission (Harvard-Westlake and Notre Dame) and Trinity (Mater Dei and St. John Bosco) – are kept in opposite brackets.
And, there are no “rematches” in the first round of games played during the regular season.
I’d also return to the traditional CIF SS format (still used for the other divisions) that attempts to balance the hosting opportunities through each round of play.
FYI . . . history of the Open Division playoffs:
*Mater Dei and Sierra Canyon have the only programs that are 9-for-9 in participation in the Open playoffs.
The Monarchs won in Year 1 (2014, 48-44 over Chino Hills, en route to a 35-0 record and mythical “national title”) and in Year 5 (2018, 55-53 over Sierra Canyon). They’re 20-7 in Open games.
The Trailblazers won consecutive titles in 2019 (64-57 vs. Bishop Montgomery) and ’20 (59-48 against Mater Dei).
*Making their Open “debuts” Friday are Crean Lutheran (which plays host to Damien) and Notre Dame (which makes a “Valley” trek, from Sherman Oaks to Chatsworth, to take on overall No. 2 seed Sierra Canyon).
*Centennial’s Huskies only missed out on an Open slot in 2018 and captured their only title last June, when they knocked off host, two-time defending champion and top-seed Sierra Canyon, 82-70, in the final of the COVID-altered 2020-21 season.
*Ten players (Donovan Dent of Centennial/New Mexico; Amari Bailey/UCLA, Ramel Lloyd/Nebraska and Kijani Wright/USC of Sierra Canyon; Cameron Thrower of Harvard-Westlake/Penn; Koat Keat of Crean Lutheran/UC Santa Barbara; R.J. Smith/Colorado and Kaleb Smith/UC Riverside of Damien; and Ben Shtolzberg/Creighton and Kendall Hailey/Army of Notre Dame) from the Open’s eight-team pool have signed with NCAA Division I-affiliated basketball programs.
My championship predictions:
OPEN
Centennial returned four starters from the team that toppled Amari Bailey and Sierra Canyon in the title game last June.
And the player who replaced Kylan Boswell (who transferred to a prep school in Arizona late in the summer) in the starting lineup, senior guard Ramsey Huff, is a defensive dynamo and much underrated as a scorer.
Guard Donovan Dent (pictured) has been better than senior in Southern California this season and guard Jared McCain (the best jump shooter in SoCal) and posts Devin Williams and Aaron McBride make up the best 2023 on any roster on a “real” high school program in the country.
And junior B.J. Taylor (a guard who returned to action last week after suffering a knee injury on Dec. 27) and sophomores Eric Freeny and Santana Huff provide Josh Giles and his staff with better depth than most realize.
Look for Bailey and his (what seems like) ever-evolving group of teammates to face a tad tougher time in their three home pool games (vs. Notre Dame, Mater Dei and Harvard-Westlake) than do the Huskies in theirs (Bishop Montgomery, Damien and Crean Lutheran).
Final: Centennial over Sierra Canyon.
DIVISION I
Riverside Poly (25-2) was the team edged by Bishop Montgomery for the eighth Open spot and the Bears’ “consolation prize” was the top seed and a first-round bye in this division.
But, if you reference my “mock 16-team Open field”, you’ll see that the sledding will be anything but smooth to the Feb. 25 title game much less than semifinals three days earlier.
The Bears may have to knock off “Field of 16 Open” opponents in a potential quarterfinal, semifinal and final.
Final: Riverside Poly over Etiwanda.
DIVISION 2AA
I could see any of the top four seeds (Capistrano Valley Christian, Canyon-Anaheim, Village Christian and Foothill) winning the title on Feb. 25.
That being said . . . as of now, Long Beach Poly – which has lost only to St. Francis, a team that I think could get to at least the semifinals in D-I, since mid-December – looks like the “team to beat” here, with 6-foot-5 senior Christian Watson and 6-4 freshman Jovani Ruff leading the way.
Final: Long Beach Poly over Village Christian.
DIVISION 2A
Orange County programs have three of the top four seeds (No.’s 1 San Juan Hills, 2 Edison and 3 Tesoro; with No. 4 Crescenta Valley).
But I think it’s going to be a “non-County” final, matching a couple of teams that have flown under the SoCal radar this season.
Final: St. Paul over Lakewood.
DIVISION 3AA
Ultimately, this is going to be an “all-Riverside County” battle royale – although Tustin could toss that theory aside in a lower-bracket semifinal.
Final: Rancho Cucamonga over Rancho Verde.
DIVISION 3A
The top sophomore in the division (Tyrone Riley) gets the nod over the top senior (Sage Wayans) in the title game.
Final: St. Pius/St. Mathias over South Pasadena.
DIVISION 4AA
Who says the Pioneers need Ed O’Bannon, Charles O’Bannon, Jason Kapono or James Harden on the floor to with a Southern Section crown?
Final: Artesia over Sunny Hills.
DIVISION 4A
Here’s an upset special . . .
Final: St. Monica over Valley Torah.
DIVISION 5AA
Final: Valley Christian/Santa Maria over Estancia.
DIVISION 5A
Final: Fontana over Riverside Prep.
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