LAGUNA NIGUEL, Ca. – If you’ve come here looking identification of potential “pitfalls” in the way of the Gonzaga Bulldogs becoming the first unbeaten NCAA men’s basketball champion in 45 years, you’ve come to the right place.
But don’t I equate “potential pitfalls” with “likely to derail Mark Few’s club before it wins six tournament games in Indiana”.
OK, for the “potential”:
The 26-0 Bulldogs beat four NCAA tournament teams that are seeded 2 (Iowa), 3 (Kansas and West Virginia) and 4 (Virginia), respectively, by an average margin of just less 13 points.
And they beat their West Coast Conference runner-up, BYU (a No. 6 seed) three times by a combined 38-point margin – albeit with the third of those meetings finding the Bulldogs trailing by 14 points in the final seconds of the first half.
But how well would they hold up in potential rematches with any of the aforementioned teams “on the first four lines” of the bracket?
We may find out.
Virginia holds the 4 slot in the West region, meaning the defending national champion Cavs (they won it in 2019; the tournament, obviously, was postponed a year ago) could get a second pop at the Bulldogs in a Round of 16 contest late next week.
But has Tony Bennett’s crew – which was bounced before an ACC tourney semifinal against Georgia Tech after a COVID-19 positive test – improved enough since its 98-75 loss to the Bulldogs on Dec. 26 to hand Gonzaga its first loss next week?
The Cavaliers were the ACC regular-season champions but didn’t appear to be playing at the same level they were prior to the NCAA tourneys in 2018 and ’19, and before the ACC came to an abrupt, COVID-19 halt a year ago.
Their player’s positive test not only kept them from a ACC semifinal with Georgia Tech – which will playing without ACC POY Moses Wright Friday vs. Loyola Chicago because of his reported positive test – but meant the Cavaliers had to quarantine in Charlottesville and not arrive in Indianapolis until Friday afternoon.
And a Saturday game vs. Ohio University – led by one of the five-best point guards in the country in Jason Preston – would have been a treacherous obstacle even minus any COVID issues.
Kansas – which was couldn’t play its Big 12 tourney semi with Texas because of its own COVID issue – and Iowa (which lost to Illinois in a Big Ten semi) sit in the lower half of the West region as the No.’s 3 and 2 seeds, respectively.
Each (Kansas vs. USC and Evan Mobley; Iowa vs. the Oregon Ducks) could face a Pac 12 opponent in possible Monday Round of 32 matchups.
Any of the four would present unique challenges for the Bulldogs:
Kansas was playing as well as anyone in the Big 12 before its COVID delay; Mobley should be one of the first two players selected in the next NBA draft; Luka Garza went for 30 points, 10 rebounds and three blocked shots for Iowa against Gonzaga; and no coach is more respected for his ability to prepare his team for these settings than Oregon’s Dana Altman.
Barring injuries (especially to its “Big Three” of Corey Kispert, Drew Timme and Jalen Suggs) or COVID issues, Gonzaga gets by any of those challenges without too much fuss or muss, though.
Regular-season Big Ten champion Michigan is No. 1 in the East region but I think No. 2 seed Alabama – which won 19 of its 21 games vs. SEC competition – comes out of that region and into the final extended weekend in Indianapolis.
On the other side of the bracket, Baylor is the top seed in the South but isn’t playing at anywhere the same level – at both the ends of the floor – than it for most of the season when the “is Baylor better than Gonzaga?” debate was at its apex.
The Bears will have to return to something close to that level of efficiency to get by potential second- and third-round matchups with North Carolina and Purdue, respectively.
No. 2 seed Ohio State – which lost to Illinois in OT of the Big Ten tourney title game on Sunday – has been that region’s most impressive team for a few weeks.
Illinois has attracted a groundswell of support as “the team with the best shot of knocking off Gonzaga” over the last month or so.
And that’s with good reason – the Illini won 14 of its last 15 games against Big Ten conference opponents.
That’s the conference with two No. 1 and two No. 2 seeds in the tourney – and five others that were in the Field of 68.
Even if it gets out of the Midwest region (a possible game with Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma State would create limitless Sweet 16 buzz), Illinois would have to likely to beat Ohio State (for the third time in four meetings) or Baylor (which spanked Coach Brad Underwood’s club by 13 points on Dec. 2) to get to the showdown on April 4 so many seem to be anticipating.
Ultimately, though, it doesn’t matter how many on-court obstacles Few’s Crew comes across over the next three weeks:
The Bulldogs are going to finish a history-making 32 and zip.
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