LAGUNA NIGUEL, Ca. – All of the pre-NCAA Tournament field and bracket speculation, via the work of the seemingly countless – and meticulous – “bracketologists”, has, in essence, rendered “surprise” almost non-existent each Sunday evening at this time of the year.
The projection of the 37 at-large selections to the 68-team field has become something approaching an exact science.
The only thing approaching something beyond eyebrow-raising when the 2013 bracket was unveiled involved the seeding of the teams – and several of the matchups (and potential matchups).
For example:
*Why did the University of Oregon Ducks, who finished just a game behind champion UCLA in the regular-season Pac 12 Conference standings and then knocked off Washington, Utah and the Bruins to win the conference tournament in Las Vegas, receive just a No. 12 seed?
UCLA and Arizona were six seeds, Colorado (which finished fifth in the conference standings) and Cal (along with UA and Oregon, it shared share second place) was also a 12.
The Ducks beat the Bruins twice (during the teams’ only regular season, in Los Angeles) and the Wildcats (in Eugene) in their only meeting.
The reason for the 12 seed for the Ducks – the 5 seed they drew, Thursday in San Jose, is Oklahoma State – was based largely, I would suspect, on the relative lack of heft to the team’s non-conference schedule.
A Thanksgiving Weekend trip to Las Vegas – which produced a win over UNLV and an 11-point loss to Cincinnati – proved to provide the only NCAA Tournament participants on Coach Dana Altman’s non-conference slate.
In fact, none of the other 11 non-Pac 12 games – all but one, at UTEP, resulting in a loss; the other 10 were played in Eugene – came against a team that will be participating in any tourney action at all.
*All but the neophytes among the bracket followers know that “we try to avoid rematches of regular-season games if at all possible” mantra of the NCAA Championship Tournament Committee.
But “procedural reasons” were cited by committee Chairman Mike Bobinski for a rematch between 5 seed UNLV and Cal (also to be played Thursday in San Jose) of a game played on Dec. 9 in Berkeley.
The Rebels prevailed in that one, 76-75, on a follow with 1.2 seconds to go by reserve post Quintrell Thomas.
*Louisville, Kansas, Indiana and Gonzaga were the No. 1 seeds – in that sequence – while being placed in the respective Midwest, South and West regional brackets.
Which squad has the biggest gripe about not being a 1?
My initial reaction would be to say Duke.
The Blue Devils were 7-0 against teams that earned NCAA bids, Florida Gulf Coast (a 15 seed), Minnesota (11), Virginia Commonwealth (5), Louisville, Ohio State (3), Temple (9) and Davidson (14).
The record against Atlantic Coast Conferences squads that are in the field is 4-2.
But the Blue Devils didn’t win either the ACC regular season or tournament titles.
And how much did an ACC tourney quarterfinal loss to non-NCAA tourney club Maryland (its second to the Terps) hurt the Blue Devils?
The 27-point thumping at Miami couldn’t have helped the 1 seed cause, either.
Why didn’t Miami – which did win both of those ACC crowns – get a 1 seed over Gonzaga, which was 31-2 while playing in a conference (WCC) without nearly the overall strength of the ACC?
I’d say four of the team’s six losses crushed that possibility: a 19-point decision at the hands of Arizona and overtime loss to Indiana State in Hawaii over Christmas; and 15-point and two-point losses to ACC clubs Wake Forest and Georgia Tech (at home!).
Wake Forest finished 13-18 overall and 6-12 in conference while Georgia Tech was 16-15 and 6-12, respectively.
Gonzaga’s only losses were to NCAA tourney teams Illinois (in Spokane) and Butler (at the buzzer, in Indianapolis, shortly after the Bulldogs handed Indiana its first loss)
Gonzaga was 18-0 against the WCC (including two tourney games in Las Vegas) and notched non-conference victories against NCAA tourney clubs Oklahoma, Pacific, Davidson, Kansas State and Oklahoma State, and beat a very talented (but underachieving, NIT participant) Baylor squad by seven points.
AS FOR THE MORE tantalizing story-lines, as well as matchups, team- and individual-wise, during the first three rounds play Tuesday-Sunday, here we go:
*With the three largest and loudest fan bases in the out west, how dynamic is it going to be in Salt Lake City on Thursday and especially on Saturday when, barring upset, Gonzaga is playing Pittsburgh and New Mexico is taking on Arizona?
I spent six days last week in Las Vegas.
So I experienced, first hand, the presence of the Gonzaga followers in the Orleans Hotel Arena for the Bulldogs’ West Coast Conference tourney final against Saint Mary’s, as well as the U of A legions in the MGM Grand Garden Arena for the Pac 12 tourney, and what seemed like the entire city of Albuquerque in the Thomas & Mack Center for the UNM Lobos’ Mountain West tourney title win over the host UNLV Rebels.
Fans from the four losing teams on Thursday are going to have an opportunity to unload their ducats for some very serious greenbacks.
*And how about the opportunity to watch a third-round, South Regional game between top seed Kansas and the No. 8 seed from Chapel Hill, NC, in Kansas City on Sunday?
For those new to all things, college basketball, North Carolina’s coach, Roy Williams, spent some very productive years as the head honcho in Lawrence, KS, before returning to his alma mater in 2003, shortly after his Jayhawks lost to Syracuse in the national title game in New Orleans.
Bill Self’s Kansas squad knocked off the Tar Heels in last spring’s Midwest Regional final in St. Louis.
*Likely first-team All-American Trey Burke is likely to go head-up against one of the nation’s other outstanding point guards Thursday in Auburn Hills, MI, when Burke and his No. 4 seed Michigan Wolverines take on No 13 South Dakota State in a South second-round game.
SDSU is led by Nate Wolters, who out-played a lot of guards with larger national reputations during the Adidas Nations in August in Southern California last August.
NBA talent evaluators and decision makers (general managers and scouting directors) will be playing close attention to that game.
*NBA eyes will also be on possible third-round games that could include Gonzaga (and 7-foot Kelly Olynyk) and Pittsburgh (freshman center Steven Adams); Louisville (Gorgui Dieng) and Colorado State (which has a standout center of its own in Colton Iverson); Creighton (Doug McDermott) and Duke (with its multiple NBA prospects including posts Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly); Syracuse (6-7 sophomore point guard Michael Carter-Williams) and UNLV (freshman forward Anthony Bennett, a likely Top Five pick in June); and Indiana and North Carolina State (multiple NBA prospects on each side).
Frank,
Really appreciate your perspective!
I don’t understand how play-in teams that did not make the field of 64 can be seeded anything other than 16th. Play-in teams getting 11th and 13th seeds is insane.
Also: Indiana was very shaky in the late going and they’re very fortunate to get a 1 seed.